Dynamics of population change in rural areas of Türkiye: A spatial analysis of villages

Abstract

The migration from rural to urban is a critical issue handled by different disciplines. Rural development strategies aim to improve rural areas and reduce inequalities. To formulate the various strategies, it is important to identify the causes of migration. This study aims to analyze the spatial tendency of population change in rural areas in Türkiye and put forward factors that cause this migration. First, LISA analysis is used to reveal spatial patterns of migrations. Then, the causes for migration have been analyzed with aspatial and spatial regression analysis. According to the study results, the change in the rural population in Türkiye shows a spatial autocorrelation. Settlements with high/low populations tend to cluster geographically. According to regression analysis, the presence of primary schools, the presence of the service sector, and the manufacturing sector employment positively affect rural population growth. Contradiction to this, distance to firsttier cities and the presence of a livestock sector have a negative effect. These results can guide policymakers to control and evaluate urban-rural population balance by providing local-scale suggestions for an emerging economy.