An assessment of population decisions on territorial plans in Türkiye

Abstract

Accurate determination of the future population of a settlement to be planned is important for optimal use of public resources, and land as a scarce resource. In this paper, the calculations for population projections, which are among the main determinants of spatial plan decisions, were questioned through the Territorial Plans. The population decisions of a total of 62 provinces were examined over twenty 1/100,000-scale Territorial Plans approved by the Ministry of Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change, together with their research reports. The basis for this consisted of: (1) population projections and forecasts, (2) average annual population growth rate calculations, and (3) population sizes. Results have shown that the extrapolation techniques used were applied incorrectly, and the population forecasts on which the plans are based were made independent of the projection calculations. In the examinations conducted over the average annual population growth rates, it was observed that the plans for each province were assigned extremely high populations without taking their current trends into account. For the 33 provinces where a comparison can be made with the projections of TURKSTAT (Turkish Statistical Institute) for the year 2025, it is found that among all the provinces only one could achieve the forecast results. Findings indicate that the following adjustments are needed: (1) more advanced population projection techniques, including demographic data, should support the extrapolation techniques, (2) the territorial plans should be revised, and (3) decisions on plans should be based on appropriate techniques and realistic population forecasts.