Abstract
Landscape monitoring and modeling enable effective and comprehensive understanding of land use change. This, in turn, helps planners in gaining insight about the complex relationships involving in the planning process. This study aims to model land use/cover in the western Aydin Province for 2025 by using Cellular automata-Markov Chain and landscape metrics. Spot 2X (1994) and Aster (2005) images were utilized along with digital elevation model and population information. Modeling parameters included Elevation, Slope, Aspect, Population, and a set of Distance maps. Fuzzy logic and multi criteria approaches were pursued for model development, and then a core set of landscape metrics were applied. The results show that while urbanization would be changing landscape characteristics significantly in the study area, coniferous forest and salt marshes will increase due to management efforts in the legally protected parks; and that Maqui and Garique cover would continuously decrease by 2025 as a result of anthropogenic pressures. Recommendations include protecting large habitat patches and establishing an ecological network; developing buffer zone typologies and strategies for ecologically important areas; preserving stepping stone habitats; improving river, hedgerow, and road and canal corridors; and promoting soft landscape matrix as a landscape management strategy in rapidly urbanizing areas.
